NFL Super Bowl LVIII wagering guide: Props, chances, lines, more

Super Bowl LVIII in between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will be used Feb. 11, and the wagering market is filled with gamer props. That’s why we’re bringing you the wagering playbook, highlighting a few of the leading alternatives for the last video game of the NFL season.

My weekly wagering playbook functions a number of information points for the huge video game, together with my analysis of a couple of significant lines I have an interest in wagering, although this post is developed in such a way that enables you to choose your own favorites.

Solely for ESPN+ members: If you wish to see a list of around 50 props and my suggested plays for each, please click this link

Note: Chances by ESPN BET and right since time of publication.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers -2
Allegiant Arena, Las Vegas
Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET

Cash line: Kansas City Chiefs (+108 ); San Francisco 49ers (-128 )
Overall: 47.5; Opened: 47.5
FPI favorite: 49ers by 3.1 (59.4% to win straight-out)

Clay’s predicted rating: 49ers 25, Chiefs 23

  • Christian McCaffrey anytime TD (-230 ): The present that continues providing, McCaffrey has actually discovered completion zone in 24 of his previous 27 video games, scoring 35 overall goals throughout the period. That consists of precisely 2 goals in each of the 49ers’ championship game over the previous 2 weeks. Unsurprisingly, McCaffrey’s use has actually seen an uptick throughout the postseason. He has actually used 95% of snaps and has actually taken in 37 brings and 17 targets. The Chiefs have not enabled any RB goals throughout the playoffs, however they did give up one in 10 out of 17 regular-season video games. The vig makes this a close call, however there’s simply adequate worth here to make it rewarding.

  • Isiah Pacheco under 16.5 hurrying efforts (-105 ): Pacheco has actually accumulated 17-plus brings in 6 of his 17 video games. He balanced 14.6 brings per video game throughout the routine season, though he’s published overalls of 24, 15 and 24 throughout Kansas City’s 3 championship game. The 2 “24 video games” was available in comfy wins over the Dolphins and Ravens, video games in which they ran absolutely no offending snaps while tracking. The “15 video game” was available in a close win over the Expenses when they routed on 79% of snaps. Game-script divides are significant here as the Super Bowl is most likely to be a competitive video game. In reality, the 49ers have actually led on 55% of their snaps this season, which routes just the Ravens for many in the NFL. Mentioning San Francisco, its defense has actually dealt with 16.5 RB brings per video game this season, consisting of a league-low 15.6 per video game throughout the routine season. No back has actually reached 19 brings versus them in any video game and just 2 even reached 17 ( Aaron Jones had 18 in the divisional around and Jerome Ford had 17 in Week 16). Lean under at anything near even cash.

  • Nick Bosa over 2.5 overall deals with (-170) and over 0.5 helps (-230 ): I promoted both of these plays recently and Bosa wound up with precisely 3 solo deals with (among which was at first a help however later on altered to a solo. … Oops!). Anyhow, both stay strong plays even at an uninspiring vig, so I’m returning to the well. Omitting a Week 18 video game in which he was on the field for just 7 plays, Bosa has actually used 81% of the 49ers’ protective snaps this season– which number leaps to 95% throughout the 2 championship game. Bosa is balancing 3.2 overall deals with (with a minimum of 3 in 13 out of 18 video games, consisting of 12 of his previous 14) and 1.1 helps (with a minimum of one in 12 getaways) per video game. There have actually been 25 circumstances of an edge rush signing up a minimum of 3 overall deals with and 43 circumstances of one producing a minimum of one help versus the Chiefs this season.

  • Deebo Samuel under 13.5 hurrying lawns (-110 ): Samuel might make this one appearance silly with simply one touch, however the chances nevertheless prefer the under. Samuel has actually seen his hurrying work decrease, having actually amounted to simply 40 brings in 17 video games. He disappointed 14 hurrying lawns in 11 of those 17 video games, consisting of 6 of his previous 7 (with an overall of 11 brings for 72 lawns throughout the period). Samuel didn’t have any continues 9 snaps versus the Packers in the divisional round before handling 7 lawns on 3 brings versus Detroit. For what it deserves, the Chiefs have actually dealt with 21 WR brings and had as a number of them opt for unfavorable lawns (-1 and -5 lawns) as they had lead to over 13 lawns (14 and 18 lawns).

  • Nick Bolton over 2.5 helps (-125 ): Bolton has actually fought injuries, however the Chiefs’ leading off-ball linebacker has actually still handled a minimum of 3 helps in 7 of his 11 video games (64%). Among the exceptions came recently versus Baltimore in an outlier video game that saw the Ravens call just 11 running plays (not to discuss having simply 57 total snaps). The other 3 exceptions was available in video games when Bolton’s snap share maxed out at 90%. He has actually used a minimum of 97% of snaps in all 3 championship game. In overall, he’s balancing 3.3 helps. All informed, 25 off-ball linebackers have actually reached 3 helps in a video game versus the 49ers this season.

  • Ji’Ayir Brown under 6.5 overall deals with (-150 ): Brown is a third-round novice who changed Talanoa Hufanga as a beginning security after he went down with a torn ACL in Week 10. Brown has actually begun 6 video games because that point and used 100% of snaps in those getaways. Over this stretch, the novice has actually balanced 6.2 overall deals with per video game, reaching 7 deals with just when– recently versus the Lions in a video game where the 49ers’ defense was on the field for a substantial 72 plays (connected for its second-highest overall of the season). The Chiefs permit deals with to securities at a below-average rate, which includes more inspiration for taking the under.

  • Trent McDuffie under 1.5 helps (-190 ): McDuffie has actually published a help overall of either absolutely no or one in 12 out of 19 video games (63%), consisting of 5 of his previous 6. He’s balancing 1.2 per video game for the season. The vig is unsightly here, however it deserves an appearance due to the match. The 49ers have actually enabled 10.4 deals with per video game to opposing cornerbacks this season, which is least expensive in the league. Just 10 corners have actually accumulated more than one help in a video game versus them and just one of those reached 3 helps.

  • Justin Watson under 1.5 receptions (-120 ): Watson had at least 2 receptions in 7 of his very first 9 video games of the season, however his use has actually reduced because Rashee Rice‘s development. Considering that Week 12, Watson has less than 2 catches in 8 out of 10 video games. The veteran receiver has a grand overall of 3 catches on 5 targets over the Chiefs’ 3 championship game. Even if targeted 2 or 3 times, Watson is a longshot to capture several passes considering his function. He ended up the routine season with a WR-high 17.3 typical depth of target, leading to simply a 50% catch rate (79th amongst the 80 certified wideouts).

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